Correlation Factors: Run Defense and ATS Success
Good handicappers know how to make lines based on power ratings, the local field, and public perception. However, other numbers that are easier to identify by looking at games and point differentials each week should not be overlooked. Here’s one that anyone can use: Run Defense.
This is one of the basic concepts when it comes to winning football. And speaking of basics, if you can’t stop the run, the opponent doesn’t need to pass. This is something that was evident when Nebraska and Oklahoma dominated the Big 8 and Big 12 during the 1970s and 1980s. Those teams had powerful running games under Barry Switzer and Tom Osborne, and many times they faced teams they just couldn’t stop. the race.
The Minnesota Vikings have had the No. 1 rushing defense all season, and note that they started 5-1 against the spread. The Patriots are currently ranked second against the run, and have a winning record, including a perfect 5-0 SU/ATS record on the road! Who is number 3? Those amazing Ravens, who have quietly had a great season (8-2), with a winning margin mark overall (plus 4-1 ATS at home, as they usually do).
Another thing a strong run defense does is make the opponent more one dimensional on offense. By eliminating the run, you can expect the opponent to be in more passing situations, which makes it a bit easier for a defensive coordinator to set up.
Strong run defense was a big factor in a game I pitched Friday between LSU and Arkansas, backing the Tigers. While others have lost faith in the Tigers, I haven’t given up on what I consider to be an elite team. LSU has suffered just two losses on the season in Auburn and Florida, two of the toughest venues in the conference. They outscored Auburn 309 to 182! They outscored Florida 318 to 288 but had a negative 3 turnover margin. LSU could very easily go undefeated on the season.
That run defense has helped make the Tigers one of the best road teams in all of college football in recent years. They are 56-38 ATS on the road and 31-19 ATS as underdogs. He knew the Arkansas game would be decided in the trenches, as Arkansas has an excellent running game, but LSU stops the run very well. The Tigers allow just 2.5 yards per carry and just 4 rushing touchdowns. In 2005, they held standout Arkansas running back Darren McFadden to just 57 rushing yards. And everyone has seen how good McFadden has been this season.
Also, teams that cannot stop the race are more likely to give up a lot of points. And the only way they can be effective in winning (SU and ATS) is to have a great offense that can mask that deficiency. This was the case with the 2003 Chiefs, who allowed more yards per carry than any other NFL team (5+ yards per turn), but were able to make the playoffs with explosive offense. But that is not easy to do. The Colts are trying to follow that path this season, with the worst defense against the run.
But it’s harder to win and cover the number when you’re fighting the run. So if you’ve found a team that can’t consistently stop the run, make sure this isn’t a weakness the opponent can exploit if they plan to back you up. Otherwise, it can be profitable to bet against teams that cannot stop the run, because it is one of the most basic (and important) handicap factors.
